Ryan Houghton: Referendum on Scottish Independence
Welcome to the Ryan Houghton Medium blog page. This is part 4 of the Brexit and the view on the future of the union. On the previous blog, we talk the Northern Ireland’s exit from the UK. Today, let’s dive right in about the Referendum on Scottish Independence. Let’s get started!
The second threat to the future of the Union, brought about at least in part by Brexit, is a second referendum on Scottish independence. As the world was waking up to the news that the UK had voted to leave Europe, Nicola Sturgeon, the First Minister of Scotland, gave an address outside Bute House. In her speech, she sought to highlight the Remain vote in Scotland and renew Scotland’s reputation ‘as an outward looking, open and inclusive country.’(BBC,2016) This sentiment was reiterated at the end of the speech and contrasted against the other ‘large parts of the UK in how we see our place in the world’ (BBC, ibid).
Even a kind reading of the First Minister’s speech detects the undertones of divergence being offered: Scotland the open, good European nation dragged out of the EU by the right-wing, inward looking England. Or in the words of the SNP, the ‘right-wing Tory Brexit’ (The SNP, 2016). In the same speech, the First Minister made clear that independence was back on the table. The Scottish government sought and won support in parliament to take forward discussions with the UK government on granting a section 30 order to permit Holyrood to legislate for a referendum (BBC, 2078).
The second threat to the future of the Union, brought about at least in part by Brexit, is a second referendum on Scottish independence. As the world was waking up to the news that the UK had voted to leave Europe, Nicola Sturgeon, the First Minister of Student ID: 51549377 Page 8 of 16 Scotland, gave an address outside Bute House. In her speech, she sought to highlight the Remain vote in Scotland and renew Scotland’s reputation ‘as an outward looking, open and inclusive country.’(BBC,2016) This sentiment was reiterated at the end of the speech and contrasted against the other ‘large parts of the UK in how we see our place in the world’ (BBC, ibid).
Even a kind reading of the First Minister’s speech detects the undertones of divergence being offered: Scotland the open, good European nation dragged out of the EU by the right-wing, inward looking England. Or in the words of the SNP, the ‘right-wing Tory Brexit’ (The SNP, 2016). In the same speech, the First Minister made clear that independence was back on the table. The Scottish government sought and won support in parliament to take forward discussions with the UK government on granting a section 30 order to permit Holyrood to legislate for a referendum (BBC, 2078).
The election results in 2017 created some breathing room for the UK government when it comes to the push for another referendum. This unsurprisingly was not the end of its Brexit headache with Scotland. The UK government will require a legislative consent motion (LCM) known as the Sewel Convention to be passed in the Scottish Parliament. Although the convention was codified in both the Scotland Act 2016 and the Wales Act 2017, it does not place a binding legal requirement to seek one (The Institute for Government, 2018).
Currently the lead committee on the EU Withdrawal Bill in the Scottish Parliament has not been able to recommend support for an LCM (Scottish Parliament Reports, 2018). Friction around Clause 11 of the EU Withdrawal Bill and specifically the UK government’s failure to amend it in the House of Commons shows the hurdles yet to be overcome (Reuters, 2018). Clause 11 deals with the distribution of powers returning from the EU and with whom the power to legislate for them lies. This friction was further exacerbated by the Scottish government’s decision to publish the UK Withdrawal from the European Union (Legal Continuity) (Scotland) Bill.
This bill, passed on 31 March 2018, has yet to receive Royal Assent. While it awaits Royal Assent, the bill may be challenged in the UK Supreme Court due to it being viewed incompetent Student ID: 51549377 Page 10 of 16 of the Scottish Parliament to pass the bill. The view of it being ultra vires was expressed initially by the Presiding Officer of the Scottish Parliament and was echoed by MSPs opposing the bill (Scottish Parliament, 2018; Belfast Telegraph, 2018). If a successful challenge is brought, it could open a serious constitutional challenge that a fragile UK government may not be in a state to fight.
Conclusion
Brexit has created new and exacerbated old constitutional problems for the survival of the Union. Without a clear solution to the question in Northern Ireland, the UK government may not be able to secure the support of the DUP on the Withdrawal Bill vote. The 2017 election which created the problem of a minority government for Theresa May in Westminster also granted a reprieve in answering demands for a second referendum on Scottish independence.
The House of Lords, where the UK government does not hold a majority, is unlikely to support legislation that has not received LCMs in Holyrood and Cardiff. Refusal from the Lords could hold the passing of the bill for up to two years. With the exit day looming, that is not something the government will want to entertain.
For the Union itself, the Scottish referendum question is far from dead. When powers from the EU are eventually returned to the UK, the ensuing fight over how they are managed against a backdrop of mistrust between the devolved and central governments sets the scene for future conflict. Brexit may have set the United Kingdom on a path to independence from Europe, but whether that Kingdom will remain United in the face of significant challenges is hard to predict.
Ryan Houghton is an experienced Councillor in Aberdeen. He has an in-depth knowledge of UK devolved and local government machinery with excellent knowledge of contemporary issues including Brexit. Read more about Ryan Houghton online here. Preview the latest Ryan Houghton blogs here. Alternatively, you can also follow Ryan Houghton on instagram here.